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Liz Weston: You’ll live longer than you think

2 min read

NerdWallet

Women often don't score as well as men in surveys of financial literacy. One area where we seem to do better is "longevity literacy," or understanding how long we're likely to live.

Longevity literacy is essential to smart retirement planning. Overestimate your longevity, and you could retire too late or scrimp too much. Underestimate it and you could run short of money.

In a recent TIAA Institute study, 43% of women correctly estimated the life expectancy of 60-year-old women in the U.S. (The right answer was 85.) Only 32% of men chose the correct answer for the life expectancy for 60-year-old men, which was 82. Men also were far more likely than women to underestimate life expectancy -- and that's a huge potential problem for both sexes.

A man who expects to die in his 70s might draw too much from retirement funds or start Social Security too early. That could leave him -- and the spouse who may outlive him -- with too little income later on.

"A lot of people do OK in their first 10 years or 15 years of retirement," says actuary Steve Vernon, a former research scholar at the Stanford Center on Longevity. "It's often in their late 70s and 80s that they started to struggle."

What you need to know about life expectancy

The life expectancy statistics that often make headlines aren't the ones that matter for retirement planning, Vernon says.

For example, in December the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted that U.S. life expectancy dropped for the second year in a row. But the number the CDC cited -- 76.4 years -- is life expectancy from birth. That figure includes infant mortality as well as the accidents, diseases, overdoses, homicides and suicides that end lives too early.

The thing about longevity is that it's persistent. The longer you live, the longer you are likely to live. One out of three men and 1 in 2 women in their mid-50s will live to 90, according to the Society of Actuaries. There's a 50% chance that at least one member of a heterosexual married couple age 65 will be alive at 92.

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