A familiar number, a far more dangerous moment
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond has climbed back to where it stood in 2007, north of 5%, and it pushed a little higher again this week after the Federal Reserve left its own rates alone. On its face, that sounds almost reassuring, a return to some pre-crisis normal. It is nothing of the sort. The same number today carries a very different, and far heavier, meaning than it did 19 years ago. In 2007, the federal debt held by the public was roughly nine trillion dollars. Today it is about four times that. A yield is simply the price of borrowing, and paying the 2007 price on four ...