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Obama’s called bluffs have left US with little credibility with Putin

President Barack Obama’s bluster toward Russia after one of that country’s warplanes was shot down by Turkish fighters Tuesday will not cause Vladimir Putin to lose any sleep – and that is a problem. Our president has allowed adversaries to cross too many of his red lines for the Russian leader to worry much about U.S. reaction to anything Moscow may do.

Beyond any reasonable doubt, Obama’s failure to take decisive action regarding Syrian leader Bashar Assad after insisting he had to go encouraged Putin to deploy the Russian military to help Assad battle rebels including the Islamic State.

As a result of events Tuesday, Obama and Kerry need all the credibility they can muster with Putin.

On that day, a Russian warplane allegedly bombing rebel targets in Syria was shot down by Turkey, which insists the craft was in Turkish airspace.

It happened that Obama was meeting at the White House with French President Francois Hollande when news of the confrontation arrived. The two were discussing cooperation in the war against Islamic State terrorists.

During a joint news conference after their meeting, Obama appeared to side with Turkey – then took a few jabs at Putin. He referred to Russia as “an outlier” in battling the IS.

Initial reports were that Turkey was in the right, that the Russian plane was in its airspace and the pilot refused to respond to repeated warnings to depart. Still, Turkey’s action was condemned by Russia – and that may lead to an escalation of military conflict between the two countries.

U.S. influence – both diplomatically and as an ally pledged to defend Turkey – at one time would have had an effect in Moscow. But Obama’s practice of issuing, then backing down from ultimatums means Putin is unlikely to worry much about U.S. reaction if he retaliates against Turkey.

That makes it critical for Obama somehow to convince Putin the U.S. will keep its military commitments to Turkey. How? Perhaps through an intermediary such as Hollande. Unless that can be done, there is severe risk of hostilities between Turkey and Russia – and that could be disastrous.

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